Is Idaho Purple?
Everyone says Idaho is red. Maybe it is. Or maybe it only looks that way because the people who want a change split their votes or stay home. Let’s run the experiment on Nov 3.
Featured races
What about your power bill?
+$12.13
a month for a typical Idaho Power home since Jan 1, 2026.
Idaho Public Utilities Commission, Dec 30, 2025+$3.64
a month more since June 1, 2026, from approved annual adjustments.
Idaho PUC, May 4, 2026 · PCA order · FCA orderData centers are on both parties’ minds. In 2026 a data-center tax-break bill (H0897), with Republican and Democratic sponsors, passed the House 68-0 and the Senate 34-0, then died on the last day when the House never voted on the Senate’s changes. Another law (H0911) did pass: since July 1, new loads of 50 megawatts or more must pay their own full cost of service. H0897 · H0911
Why “purple”?
Closed
Only registered Republicans can vote in Idaho’s Republican primary. Anyone who wants a say there has to register as a Republican, so registration may overstate the party’s strength in November.
Idaho Secretary of State: primary electionsJoin the experiment
Be one of the first 100 Idahoans testing whether this state is as red as everyone says.
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Thanks for joining the experiment. The most useful thing now: help three friends make sure they can vote.
The hypothesis
Idaho is a one-party state. Our hypothesis: it’s more competitive than it looks if non-Republican voters team up behind the one candidate in reach in each race.
This isn’t a push poll or a campaign. It’s a question with an answer we’ll all see on Nov 3. It’s made by one Idahoan, Ronald Baird, with no donations and no coordination with any campaign.
The method
We wrote the rule down before applying it, the way tactical-voting sites in the UK do. In each race:
- If there’s a recent independent poll (not paid for by a campaign or party), the pick is the non-Republican candidate polling highest in it.
- If there’s no independent poll, the pick is the non-Republican candidate (or that candidate’s party) that finished highest in the last comparable election.
- If only one non-Republican is on the ballot, it’s a two-way race: what matters is turnout.
- If the polls conflict or the answer isn’t clear, the label is “Not sure” and we explain why.
- Exceptions are made by hand, in writing, in the open.
We show campaign-paid polls, always labeled, but never use them to make a pick. We say “can make this a real race,” never “will win.”
What we don’t do
- We never collect or deliver anyone’s ballot. In Idaho that’s a crime (Idaho Code 18-2324).
- No prizes, rewards or bets for taking part (18-2319, 18-2314).
- We never ask for a photo of your ballot.
- We take no position on ballot measures.
- We take no donations or campaign help, and share data with no one.
The picks
| Race | Pick | Label |
|---|---|---|
| US Senate | Todd Achilles I | Clear pick |
| Governor | Terri Pickens D | Clear pick |
| U.S. House, District 1 | Kaylee Peterson D | Clear pick |
| U.S. House, District 2 | Ellie Gilbreath D | Clear pick |
| Lieutenant Governor | Eric Myricks D | Two-way race: turnout matters |
| Attorney General | Lori Hickman D | Two-way race: turnout matters |
| Secretary of State | Shawn Keenan D | Two-way race: turnout matters |
| State Treasurer | Kevin A Jones D | Two-way race: turnout matters |
| State Controller | Rakesh Mohan D | Two-way race: turnout matters |
| Superintendent of Public Instruction | Becky Sundin Mitchell D | Clear pick |
| State Senate, District 14 | – | No pick |
| State Senate, District 15 | Nancy Gregory D | Two-way race: turnout matters |
| State House, District 15, Seat A | Steve Berch D | Two-way race: turnout matters |
| State House, District 15, Seat B | Jae Etchart D | Two-way race: turnout matters |
| State Senate, District 26 | Ron Taylor D | Clear pick |
| State House, District 26, Seat A | Anita Janis D | Clear pick |
| State House, District 26, Seat B | Kevin Marsh D | Two-way race: turnout matters |
How we’ll know
After Nov 3 we’ll publish the results next to the hypothesis: did the vote for the picks rise compared with 2022 and 2024? We’ll publish the answer honestly either way.